London is going driverless
How London is Becoming Europe’s Robotaxi Testing Ground
As recently as May 2025, self-driving vehicles (SDV) weren’t expected in the UK for several years. The BBC reported that the Department for Transport wouldn’t allow deployment until 2027. At industry conferences in the spring, 2028 seemed more likely.
A few weeks later everything changed.
We interviewed mobility expert Barak Sas to understand this sudden acceleration.
On 10 June 2025, British startup Wayve and the Department for Transport announced that public driverless vehicle trials will begin in 2026. Robotaxi rides will be available to the public through the Uber app. In the three months since it has become clear that several more firms are eyeing up the profitable ride-hailing market. By next year, London may have more autonomous-vehicle operators than any other city outside China.
Two operators have already announced that they plan to launch in the UK next year. One is London-based Wayve, the local champion, still in its private demo stage. The other is China’s Apollo Go which is owned by the search engine and technology company Baidu.
Two months after Wayve’s announcement, Lyft announced that they are partnering with Apollo Go to provide Robotaxi services in both the UK and Germany in 2026. But the announcement was left unreported by most UK media outlets, despite Apollo Go’s relative maturity. The firm delivered 2.2 million autonomous rides across 12 cities in China and UAE in the second quarter of 2025 alone.
Add to this the rumours that Waymo, the industry leader, is aiming to launch in London soon (they recently hired two UK roles in policy and business operations, Barak notes, and a “Fleet Readiness Lead” as recently reported by the Telegraph).
In the next 12 months it is plausible that we will go from zero SDV operators to three. The result: a competition for market share unlike anything seen so far in the US or Europe.
“I went to an [autonomous vehicle] conference a few months ago and it was all doom and gloom, the UK [didn’t expect to see deployment] until 2027, 2028,” Barak, Managing Director at Mobility Business, a consultancy focused on future mobility, tells us.
The majority of the industry did not anticipate commercial deployments in 2026. Now we have three firms plausibly launching in 2026, with Bolt, an Uber competitor which controls 20% of London’s ride-hailing market share, still needing to find an autonomous vehicle partner to, as Barak puts it, “stay relevant.”
Why the change of heart?
There are several reasons which explain the change.
Firstly, the government desires to be seen as pro-technology. Whilst AI initiatives are harder to see in real life, self-driving vehicles will be a much more visible symbol of progress. Although the Automated Vehicles Act passed in the last days of the Sunak government, Labour ministers have sought to accelerate SDV progress since taking power. Expect them to take credit for deploying this futuristic technology over the coming years.
Second, the Wayve factor. Unlike in several other frontier tech markets (notably AI), the UK has a domestic champion: Wayve. Expect them to use this privileged position to influence legislation in their favour - as Waymo seems to have done with statewide legislation in California and Arizona. For the government, the prospect of a UK-based firm, in a global, technology-enabled market is highly appealing.
Thirdly, and more subtly, the UK’s moves on SDVs are designed to strengthen our legal services - one of the key export markets. By setting domestic policy early, the UK will shape global standards and hopes to make English law the standard for cross-border contracts related to autonomous vehicles. Foreign commercial disputes would be arbitrated in London courts, bringing revenue to local law firms. The Automated Vehicles Act (2024) was one of the first pieces of primary legislation related to SDVs globally, setting a standard that others will hopefully follow.
The London Gold Rush
For SDV firms, in addition to regulatory support, London has distinct advantages beyond other European cities.
Barak points to the commercial opportunity. Over 3.5 million people regularly use Uber in the city, one of “Uber’s biggest global markets.”
The city also offers a side benefit: pan-European marketing. Millions of annual tourists, far more than visit San Francisco or LA, mean successful London operations become a showcase which will stimulate demand elsewhere. As tourists go back home and share their impressions of London, the dominant self-driving firm will have its brand discussed across the continent. Being an early market leader is therefore important not just for winning the UK market, but potentially in shaping fortunes across the continent. The race for market share is likely to heat up quickly.
The Race to Plant Flags
In addition to the commercial opportunities offered by London’s size and international reach, each firm has distinct incentives to start offering rides in the city.
Wayve developed its technology on London’s streets. As the local champion, they will receive the most regulatory favour and they have been preparing for years to launch in London. With most of their staff in London, the city is a natural choice.
Apollo Go is targeting international markets which offer higher fares, to boost profits. They’ve launched in Switzerland and Dubai (as well as Turkey), all of which offer higher revenue per mile than the Chinese markets where they have delivered most of their rides, across 12 cities. Additionally, London is easier to navigate than Chinese megacities, with lower density and strict low-speed limits.
For Waymo, the American industry leader, London is more of a defensive play. They cannot let Chinese competitors establish European dominance nor do they want to give a smaller company time to gain ground. If European consumers’ first robotaxi experience is with Apollo Go or scaled up Wayve operations, Waymo may struggle to catch up. They need brand awareness before other firms take hold. Their technology and business model are the most mature of the three firms, though their growth has been steady rather than explosive. Nevertheless, even if Waymo enters later, they may still become the customer favourite.
The Apollo Go Question: How Open Are We Towards Chinese Business?
“China’s robotaxi industry is very very advanced” Barak informs us. No other country has seen several robotaxi companies (Baidu’s Apollo Go, WeRide, Pony.AI) compete in the same cities. This gives Apollo Go a head start in competing for market share in London, as they’ve already competed with other providers in cities like Beijing and Wuhan. They also operate in a dozen other Chinese cities, giving them the greatest geographical experience of all the London entrants.
Barak reflects the rest of the industry when he says “It’s a huge question on whether Baidu will be allowed to operate [in the UK]”. If they do, Apollo Go would likely offer the cheapest rides between the three competing firms. Baidu manufactures its own driverless cars at a cost of $28,350 per vehicle.
For Waymo and Wayve their per vehicle cost figures are unknown, but Waymo’s base vehicle Jaguar I-Pace costs north of $70,000 to manufacture and another $100,000 to equip with AV tech.
Wayve’s used the Jaguar I-Pace for testing and is scaling using the Ford Mach-E (Ford sells them at a loss), but their software can be ported on top of the hardware of any automotive vehicle. Cost data is closely guarded, nevertheless it’s unlikely that Wayve’s robotaxi service next year could outcompete Apollo Go on cost .
Apollo Go’s entrance is not guaranteed, in fact it may be unlikely; after all the UK followed the lead of US sanctions and evicted the Chinese telecoms infrastructure provider Huawei only a few years ago. In June the government banned Chinese EVs from military sites on spying concerns. Any Apollo Go entry into Britain would likely rely on assurances of local or European data storage and transparency. The UK may even demand that data is held only within a subsidiary and is ring-fenced so it cannot make its way back to China.
What This Means
Multiple firms competing for the same riders means London’s robotaxi market is likely to grow faster than in any US city where Waymo operated unchallenged. The impacts could be felt quickly, and opposition, particularly from existing black-cab taxi drivers will be swift to follow.
Whether the government stays firm in its pro-tech position, when facing organised labour opposition remains to be seen. The adoption and fate of the industry in the UK will depend as much on these policy questions, as on technical questions. What’s for certain is that London’s unique advantages will continue to make it a prize for robotaxi operators the world over. The driverless car is about to pick you up.
Barak Sas is the Managing Director of Mobility Business. He advises global transport and mobility-tech companies on scaling, innovation, and market expansion. His insights appear in his #movingpeople newsletter.
