2026 Predictions
What to expect from robotaxis in London, the US, and Europe plus key startups to watch.
Happy new year, everyone. 2026 is shaping up to be an interesting one for autonomous vehicles. In the UK, we’ll see the launch of public robotaxi services in London this spring. Technology that has been in research and development since 2009 (in the case of Waymo) and 2017 (in the case of Wayve) will finally be arriving at our doorstep.
These new commercial services will change what the word “AI” means for many people. Regardless of whether someone has used a tool like ChatGPT, they’ll now experience the capabilities and shortcomings of AI-powered self-driving vehicles firsthand. People’s existing perceptions of AI may shape their initial opinions on robotaxis, and journalists, already wary of LLMs, may begin their coverage with scepticism.
This article covers IfDT's 2026 predictions. The primary goal isn’t to predict the future, but to direct attention to some of the most interesting upcoming developments over the course of the next year, from commercial launches to media and social outcomes.
Any prediction is hard to make, but the autonomous vehicle industry in the UK has one feature which makes this easier: the UK is not at the frontier of this technology or its commercial developments. That privilege remains with the US and China. By observing outcomes abroad, we can better understand the boundaries of what’s possible here.
In the US, Waymo now serves over 400,000 weekly rides across five cities. Parents send their children to school in robotaxis, and inhabitants of California’s cities have both actively destroyed and publicly celebrated the vehicles, with the technology ultimately becoming normalised in Los Angeles and San Francisco and Austin over the course of 2025. Several other firms are testing services from robotaxis to semi-truck logistics. Waymo is aiming to start services in 12 new cities by the end of 2026.
Chinese firms, meanwhile, are pursuing multi-pronged international expansion. Baidu’s Apollo Go, operates 1,000+ fully driverless vehicles across 15 cities and two countries as of the most recent data in May 2025. For 2026 they have announced expansion into Switzerland and the UK. Gulf state cities such as Dubai and Doha are welcoming growing Chinese robotaxi fleets whilst China has the widest range of commercially active services ranging from autonomous logistics to street sweepers.
So, after an exciting 2025, where robotaxis finally began commercial operations across US cities and internationally, what do we expect to happen this year?
To make judgements clear. I’ll be using the prediction style of the forecasting website Metaculus. Each prediction holds a percentage score of how likely we believe the statement to become true. A 95% estimate is something we think is really very likely to happen, a 50% estimate could just as well go the other way. Some are accompanied by notes that clarify our thinking.
UK
By the end of 2026 London will have commercial robotaxi services from multiple operators, the only city in Europe where this will be true. These services will be accessible to the public, mostly in inner London, north of the river, but vehicle constraints will mean that ride numbers are very small compared to the city’s transport needs. London will most likely be the only city in the UK with any autonomous vehicles operating at any appreciable scale. Nevertheless, the launch of autonomous taxi services will shape public opinion and discussion, long before there is a significant economic impact. We’d be surprised if we made it through 2026 without significant protests by (heavily organised) Black Cab drivers against robotaxis. That said, both City Hall and No 10 have been positive on the rollout of Automated Vehicles in the UK, so these protests are unlikely to get far.
Waymo and Wayve are a long way along the path to starting operations in London next year and we expect these companies to be the first two operators running. Currently Apollo Go claims it will provide services through Uber and Lyft in the first half of 2026, though they have previously announced that their entry into London was pending regulatory approval. The significant national security implications of allowing operations by a Chinese controlled company make the likelihood of a rollout by Apollo Go particularly inscrutable.
Predictions:
UK Rollout
Robotaxi services combined will cover the service area of five or more of London’s boroughs by the end of 2026 (70%).
Wayve will begin commercial robotaxi services before July 2026 via Uber (85%).
No UK city other than London will begin testing robotaxi services in 2026 (80%).
Waymo removes the safety driver from their testing vehicles before June 2026 (70%).
Note: Waymo announced their London expansion in October 2025 and vehicles arrived in December, Waymo tests with safety drivers before moving to driverless operations. Their established playbook in US cities suggests a 6-month supervised-to-driverless transition is achievable.
Neither Waymo nor Wayve pause services for more than four hours nor recall vehicles primarily due to a weather-related reason with the exception of ice (90%).
There will be more robotaxi service coverage (by square miles) north of the Thames than south of the river by the end of the year (75%).
Wayve will announce two more manufacturing deals beyond the existing one with Nissan (75%).
Heathrow announces an autonomous vehicle partnership with a company they have not previously collaborated with (50%)
Note: Airport environments are ideal early AV use cases (controlled, predictable routes). Heathrow has explored autonomous vehicles for operations before.
Apollo Go starts robotaxi services in London in 2026. No prediction given.
As with the Huawei case before it may be difficult from the outside to tell how much attention is being paid across government - and by who - to a launch of Chinese robotaxis in London.
UK Public Opinion
Black cab drivers organise a coordinated protest against a robotaxi provider or Uber (75%)
The number of London’s human-driven uber drivers or black cabs does not decrease significantly below existing trends. (90%).
Note: In cities where Waymo is currently operating, Uber has experienced a higher than average market growth rate than nationally. But a Gridwise report showed a small drop in driver pay in US AV cities. Nevertheless, the 2026 rollout in London should be too small for any city-wide statistical effects, however for 2027 such market disruption is likely.
LBC will discuss robotaxis in the week of the first service launch (90%).
Two more disability civil society groups or charities endorse Waymo or Wayve (65%).
Someone on TikTok or interviewed on the news claims that their primary mode of transport in London is via robotaxi (60%).
Driving licence application rates in the UK remain stable and aren’t affected by robotaxis (98%)
International developments
US
In 2026, Waymo will become a household name in the US. The company is likely to successfully expand into most if not all of the cities it has already targeted which will mean they will no longer be associated with California alone. By contrast, Tesla is likely to fall short of rolling out the unsupervised ‘Full Self Driving’ software nationwide to consumer vehicles. The national market as a whole becomes more competitive as new entrants are likely to scale competition in San Francisco.
Certain markets such as New York, DC and Boston remain hard for Waymo to break through due to politics and regulation. New self-driving software , including NVIDIA-crafted approaches, move closer to commercial use but are unlikely to reach large-scale, driverless operations in 2026. Overall, 2026 clarifies the hierarchy of players.
Waymo will start commercial service in 9 of the 12 cities they plan to expand to for 2026 (95%). All 12 (85%).
Note: Waymo is underway to expand into 15 new cities, with 12 targeted for 2026 (Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh are planned for later). The company has historically delivered on its rollout announcements, though regulatory hurdles, especially in Washington D.C. and manufacturing enough vehicles to serve all markets simultaneously remain the key constraints.
San Francisco will see five different fully autonomous robotaxi services operating in the city (60%).
Note: Waymo already operates commercially across much of the city, Zoox is running employee rides, and Tesla began a robotaxi service in the Bay Area in late 2025. Wayve is actively testing, Nuro has announced safety-driver services for this year, and May Mobility and Oxa are operating or testing nearby. The regulatory pathway exists and momentum is decent.
Tesla will fall short of rolling out unsupervised FSD (Full Self-Driving) for personal vehicles (90%)
Waymo announces a NYC service launch date for some point in the future (40%).
An NVIDIA full-stack driverless robotaxi commercial service begins in any US city in 2026 (40%)
Note: NVIDIA has been open-sourcing driverless software that could enable other players to start a Robotaxi service. NVIDIA’S plan is to offer Robotaxi services in collaboration with Uber in 2027 but Nuro is using this software to launch in ‘late 2026’
Europe
In 2026, Europe will see meaningful but uneven progress on autonomous vehicles. Croatia is set to become an unlikely leader as Verne launches what could be the continent’s first scaled driverless robotaxi service in Zagreb. France will likely pull ahead of Germany in total autonomous vehicle deployments, in part thanks to WeRide having a license to operate in the country. Meanwhile, the Netherlands is expected to approve Tesla’s current FSD software for supervised use on public roads, making it the first European country. In Germany, bureaucracy will ensure a cautious pace.
Zagreb will see a driverless robotaxi service operated by Verne with 30+ vehicles by December 2026 (85%).
The Netherlands approves (the current iteration of) Tesla ‘Full Self Driving’ (FSD) in 2026 (60%).
Note: Tesla FSD is already available in the US, Canada, China, Mexico, Australia and New Zealand. The Dutch vehicle regulator RDW is currently testing Tesla’s FSD on public roads, and are submitting an application for an EU-wide permit for the technology in February this year. Even if the relevant EU committee votes against it, it is likely that the RDW approves it for Dutch use.
France will have more autonomous vehicles (robotaxis and fixed-route transport) than Germany in 2026 (70%).
Those are the predictions. But forecasts only tell part of the story. The companies and individuals below are some of the key but underdiscussed players driving the future of autonomy globally and in the UK.
Startups to watch
Glydways
Glydways is an early stage autonomous pod startup that also builds separated roadways or ‘Glydways’ for their transport infrastructure. They have large ambitions and claim that their service has up to 90% cheaper outcomes than rail services, with reduced congestion.
In a recent interview, their CEO said:
“In 2026 we’re launching in New York City and Atlanta, Georgia. We’re breaking ground on three other systems, one in Japan, one in Manila, the Philippines, and one that I can’t talk about yet. Then we have 17 projects currently under development and negotiation. However, although we’re exploring projects all over the world, we’ve established an office in the UAE because we’re very committed to this region. I would be very disappointed if you did not see a Glydway system up and running within two years in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.”
They’re also backed by Sam Altman. Will they launch in NYC? One to watch.
Zelostech
Zelostech is a rising autonomous logistics player from China. They closed 2024 as the global number one RoboVan brand. They claim 15,000 vehicles deployed across 300+ cities, 75 million kilometres geo-fenced autonomous driving, and operations live in Singapore, Malaysia, UAE, Austria and beyond.
At the tens of thousands of vehicle scale this startup can begin influencing the city economies they operate in. In 2026 we will investigate how logistics and last-mile supply chains are responding and adapting to autonomy.
Key figures to follow
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander.
In 2025 Alexander confirmed the decision to fast-track Automated Passenger Service Trails which gave the regulatory greenlight to begin commercial robotaxi services in London in 2026.
Simon Lightwood MP. The minister for roads, and responsible for Autonomous Vehicles.
As roads minister, Lightwood will oversee any consultations that shape the regulatory pathway for autonomous vehicles, worth watching for signals on how quickly the government wants to move.
Ben Loewenstein Head of Policy and Government Affairs, UK & Europe at Waymo.
Ben may hint at any exciting development ahead of schedule or highlight Waymo community efforts in London.
Conclusion
Whether these predictions prove accurate or wildly off the mark, 2026 will undoubtedly be the year that autonomous vehicles stop being a distant curiosity and start becoming part of everyday conversation in London and we look forward to revisiting this list in twelve months to see just how much the landscape has changed.
